SHARE:
Policy Points from Iowa Fiscal Partners

Posts tagged Iowa Policy Project

IPP, CFPC form Common Good Iowa

Posted August 6th, 2020 to Blog

Today we have exciting news. The Iowa Policy Project has joined with our longtime partners at the Child and Family Policy Center to formally create a new organization, Common Good Iowa.

Look to Common Good Iowa for the solid research, rigorous policy analysis and focused advocacy that Iowans have come to expect from both organizations. Expect the same attention to critical issues that you have seen from IPP over two decades — and a new, invigorated approach to advancing a bold policy agenda. By joining to together we will have more capacity to coordinate our expertise on issues and communications, and wage successful campaigns to improve the lives of every person who calls Iowa home.

The creation of one organization out of two is the result of many months of discussions among board and staff members at both IPP and CFPC. We have always recognized that as each group has focused on some issues that the other has not, we share a common focus in other areas, including budget priorities and tax policy needed to fairly and adequately support those priorities. But we also have recognized that we need to connect the dots better between these many issues if we want our friends in the advocacy community to do so as well.

Common Good Iowa will, with one voice, draw attention to policy that connects these issues for the benefit of our entire community in Iowa — as we say, “the common good.”

Since the early discussions in 2000 that led to our founding in 2001, IPP has followed the vision of a “three-legged stool” for our work: economic opportunity (to include wages, jobs, education, wage theft, collective bargaining, economic development, pensions, and work supports including child care and Food Stamps); tax and budget issues, particularly tax fairness and revenue adequacy; and energy and the environment, including policy opportunities toward clean, sustainable energy choices and better water quality.

As you may know, IPP’s work on tax fairness and tax credits, as well as some of our research and advocacy on work support and safety-net programs, has been in cooperation and coordination with CFPC as the “Iowa Fiscal Partnership.” That brand on our work will go away as we are now formally one organization.

Common Good Iowa will carry on CFPC’s example as a leading advocate in Iowa on early childhood; children’s health, development and well-being; and family economic opportunity. As CFPC has done for many years, our new organization will continue to share data, link research to policy and promote best practices for improving child well-being as part of the nationwide Kids Count initiative.

Every staff member for both IPP and CFPC has a place in the new organization. Anne Discher, who has served as executive director of CFPC, will be the executive director of Common Good Iowa, headquartered in Des Moines. We will retain an Iowa City office, with IPP executive director Mike Owen becoming deputy director of Common Good Iowa. I invite you to reach out to Anne or Mike if you have questions about this new arrangement.

The name “Common Good Iowa” was chosen after great deliberation among staff and board of both organizations. It reflects our vision of public policy in Iowa. Philosophers, economists and political scientists have long debated and defined the common good, and there’s a powerful theme that links those conversations: public systems and structures for the benefit of all people, achieved through collective action in policymaking and public service. It feels utterly right for our new endeavor.

This is a great opportunity to reimagine our work. We’re at a moment when the devastating impact of racism, intolerance in our civic discussions, and years of neglect of our public systems have been laid bare for all to see. No Iowa community can thrive when some community members are systemically deprived of opportunity by our health, educational, human service and justice systems. We must do better.

As a largely white organization, we pledge to listen to and learn from our partners of color around our state, and to be not be just not racist, but, to borrow from scholar Dr. Ibram X. Kendi, to be anti-racist: to actively advance concrete policies and practices to dismantle the persistent inequities experienced by Black, Latinx, Asian, Native and other marginalized communities. We also commit to the internal work to become an organization that itself is attractive to a diverse, talented staff.

The merger is official now, although we will be putting finishing touches on our new brand over the next months. You’ll be hearing more about how you can celebrate virtually with us when we unveil our new logo, website, social channels and policy roadmap later in the year.

Until then you can reach Common Good Iowa staff at their existing CFPC and IPP email addresses, websites and social media accounts.

Sincerely,

 

Janet Carl

Vice President, Common Good Iowa Board of Directors
Former President, Iowa Policy Project Board of Directors

Data clear: New stimulus needed

Posted July 23rd, 2020 to Blog

As the long-awaited next round of federal aid and stimulus remains mired in political infighting, the hardship in Iowa — and around the country — is acute. As a new report from the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) makes clear, households are struggling to pay for the basics now, and that need will only grow if the $600 per week federal “PUC” boost to unemployment insurance benefits expires as scheduled next week.

The receipt of SNAP (food stamps) is up 14 percent in Iowa since February of this year, but the share of Iowans reporting food insecurity continues to grow. According to the CBPP’s analysis of the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, 1-in-8 (12 percent) Iowa families with children reported (for the last week of June and first week of July) that their household sometimes or often didn’t have enough to eat in the last seven days.

Housing insecurity is also a growing problem. Iowa set up a small fund with CARES Act funds to provide short-term assistance for those unable to make rent or mortgage payments — but disqualified those receiving PUC benefits from even applying. There is about $20 million left in the fund (out of $22 million) but when the PUC expires next week, the demands on this program will skyrocket. According to CBPP, 1 in 6 Iowa tenants are already behind on their rent.

These hardships will be especially stark for Iowa’s Black and Latino workers and their families. Unemployment rates are persistently higher for workers of color. These workers are disproportionately represented among the front-line and manufacturing (especially meat processing) jobs that have posed a higher risk of exposure to the virus. In the absence of meaningful and enforceable workplace protections, the temporary boost to UI benefits provided something of a refuge. As an administrative judge concluded in approving unemployment compensation for a worker who quit because of safety concerns concluded in one recent UI case, “the working conditions at Tyson were unsafe, intolerable and detrimental, and rose to the level where a reasonable person would feel compelled to quit.” But that option evaporates next week.

All of this hardship would be even worse in the absence of the CARES Act provisions for enhanced unemployment insurance, and increased federal support for SNAP, LIHEAP (Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program), and other social supports. Iowans are suffering with those programs in place, and they will suffer more if social supports are allowed to return to levels previous to COVID-induced shutdowns.

The latest data on initial unemployment claims, released today, show the persistence of Iowa’s economic woes during the pandemic, with nearly 400,000 filing claims in the last 18 weeks.

It is crucial that, with the virus surging in Iowa and other states and the economy projected to remain weak, that our federal representatives move quickly to enact a stimulus package that continues and expands upon these basic protections. We need an extension of expanded unemployment benefits, more opportunities for paid leave, more federal support for child care, SNAP, and LIHEAP, and robust fiscal relief for states and localities. And it is just as crucial that Governor Reynolds and the Iowa Legislature pass along any discretionary state assistance to those in the most need.

Colin Gordon is senior research consultant at the nonpartisan Iowa Policy Project and a history professor at the University of Iowa.

Iowa jobless claims numbers daunting

Posted July 16th, 2020 to Blog

In the last week, another 11,125 Iowans applied for unemployment insurance. That brings the total, in the 24 weeks since the COVID-19 recession began in February, to over 400,000 — or almost a quarter of the entire Iowa labor force. Of that, nearly 388,000 (387,847) are the change over the last 17 weeks, in which these numbers first spiked.

Let’s put that in perspective: 400,000 unemployment claims is over four times the number filed over the first 24 weeks of the Great Recession. Over that span, from December 2007 to May 2008, weekly claims peaked at 13,542 in late December 2007 — the only week in the Great Recession when Iowa unemployment claims topped the 10,000 mark. In the last 24 weeks, weekly claims have exceeded 10,000 eleven times. Indeed, the average since early February is almost 17,000 new weekly claims — 3,000 higher than the worst week of the Great Recession.

As the crisis persists, the safety net for Iowa’s unemployed is about to unravel. On July 25, the federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (PUC) program — the $600 weekly boost to regular state benefits — comes to an end. For the nearly 150,000 Iowans currently receiving unemployment benefits, the checks will be a lot smaller: For an unemployed worker who had been working full-time at minimum wage, the weekly check will shrink from over $800 to barely $200. Once the applications of the 11,125 Iowans who filed for unemployment last week are processed, the PUC will be a distant memory — and their benefits will replace barely half of their lost wages.

Colin Gordon is senior research consultant at the nonpartisan Iowa Policy Project.

Warning: Edge of a cliff

Posted July 13th, 2020 to Blog

In less than two weeks, the Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (PUC) program — the $600 federal supplement to unemployment insurance benefits — will come to a close. The impact, for Iowa’s working families and for the Iowa economy, is likely to be devastating.

Our regular unemployment insurance system reaches only about half of the workforce and replaces barely half of an unemployed worker’s wages. In order to support those workers thrown out of work by the pandemic and, more broadly, to support the public health goal of sheltering in place, the CARES Act extended eligibility to most of those not covered (Pandemic Unemployment Assistance or PUA) and added $600 a week to the benefit paid under regular UI and the PUA.

This means a full-time minimum wage worker who lost their job qualifies for a regular weekly benefit of about $152.00 (Iowa unemployment insurance replaces about 52 percent of wages), and an additional $600 under the PUC — for a weekly benefit of $752.00. An unemployed worker had had been earning the median hourly wage in Iowa ($18.40) qualifies for a weekly benefit of $387.00 and an additional $600 under the PUC — for a weekly benefit of $987.00.

The $600 supplement under the PUC and the entire benefit paid to non-traditional workers under the PUA are all paid for the federal dollars. That has had a huge stimulus effect in Iowa, sustaining not just individual consumption but state and local tax revenues as well. Currently there are 145,875 Iowans either receiving regular UI+PUC or waiting for their claim to be processed, and another 18,456 receiving PUA+PUC. That represents an inflow of over $102 million into the state every week. Come July 25th, when only the federal contribution to the regular PUA benefit is left, and that will slow to a trickle, barely $3 million a week.

The result? Many of the unemployed will see a substantial benefit cut, tumbling from near full replacement of wages for workers earning less than $65,000 to barely half that. At half-wages, few will be able to meet basic expenses. That blow will reverberate throughout the economy. According to new estimates by the Economic Policy Institute, failure to extend the PUC beyond July will cost Iowa another 42,586 jobs over the next year.

Meager benefits and persistently high unemployment, in turn, will put new demands on other forms of social support, including SNAP and rental and utility assistance. And they will press the unemployed — unable to pay their bills — back into the labor force at the expense of their health and the public health. With COVID cases surging in Iowa and many other states, the extension of federal support for unemployment insurance is crucial to fighting this recession — and the virus that caused it.

Colin Gordon is a professor of history at the University of Iowa and is senior research consultant at the nonpartisan Iowa Policy Project in Iowa City.

Worker safety: Who gets protected?

Posted June 17th, 2020 to Blog

The COVID-19 crisis poses a dizzying combination of health and economic risks, and it has forced us to rethink the ways in which our public policies protect us against those risks. The underlying logic of the CARES Act, for example, was based on the assumption that sharing public spaces — especially workplaces — posed a grave threat to the public health. Its benefits — including a limited program of paid leave and a relatively generous expansion of unemployment insurance — were designed to make not working and sheltering in place possible.

That instinct was right but its execution was dismally flawed. State unemployment systems could not begin to manage the avalanche of claims. The virus flourished in settings — most starkly meatpacking plants — that ploughed ahead as “essential” businesses. And states impatient to open up again did everything they could to discourage workers from accessing the new federal benefits — a point Iowa Workforce Development Director Beth Townsend all but conceded in testimony before Congress last week.

From the first hint of the virus to the rush to reopen, Iowa has done perilously little to protect its workers, their families, and their communities. Safe workplaces are pretty clearly defined in the guidelines developed by both the CDC and the Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA). But there is nothing in state or federal law that compels employers to follow them, and ample evidence that many are not. Even in the midst of local outbreaks, county health directors lacked the authority to shut down production. “They just don’t get it,” as the Tama County emergency management coordinator, complained in the midst of an outbreak at the National Beef plant there, “They will keep going until all of their employees have this virus. They would rather risk their employees’ health and keep their production going.” As Governor Reynolds coldly reminded us in late May: “Our recovery is contingent on our ability to protect both the lives and the livelihoods of Iowans. We can’t prioritize one over the other.”

Those priorities came into sharper focus this week. In a brief and largely aimless session, the Iowa Legislature offered scarcely a passing reference to the health and economic insecurity facing Iowa’s working families. They did, however, jump to address the insecurity of Iowa employers — offering up blanket immunity from COVID related claims coming from workers or consumers.

The “COVID-19 Response and Back to Business Limited Liability Act” (Senate File 2338) requires that any claims of exposure to the virus meet a standard of “reckless disregard” or “actual malice.” Employers “shall not be held liable for civil damages for any injuries sustained from exposure or potential exposure to COVID-19 if the act or omission alleged to violate a duty of care was in substantial compliance or was consistent with any federal or state statute, regulation, order, or public health guidance related to COVID-19 that was applicable to the person or activity at issue at the time of the alleged exposure.” Since such regulations or guidelines are virtually non-existent, it is hard to imagine what such threshold might look like.

At a time of such peril and uncertainty, this is a remarkable and damning expression of our state’s priorities. It is a solution in search of a problem; there has been no stampede of frivolous damage claims — in Iowa or elsewhere. And it ignores the more obvious and equitable tack, which is to protect the workers in the first place, and allow them to refuse work (and draw unemployment benefits) if that protection is not sufficient. “Everybody wins when businesses follow clear, science-based guidelines to protect health and safety,” as The New York Times put it in a recent editorial. “Workers and customers are less likely to get exposed to the virus, and businesses are less likely to get exposed to litigation.”

Now, more than ever, our public policies should be assessed on whom they put at risk and whom they reward; on whom they protect, and whom they do not. The blanket immunity offered Iowa businesses by SF2338, alongside our abject and continuing failure to offer any meaningful protection for Iowa’s workers, fails that assessment on all counts.

Colin Gordon is senior research consultant for the Iowa Policy Project and a professor of history at the University of Iowa.

Encourage Iowans to seek both jobless, housing benefits

Posted June 4th, 2020 to Blog

Amidst the worst employment crisis since the Great Depression, Governor Kim Reynolds and her colleagues seem fixated not on the magnitude of the crisis, but on the generosity of the CARES Act unemployment programs and the obstacle they apparently pose to getting Iowans back to work.

First, Iowa Workforce Development issued a chilling directive (from which they have now retreated) which very nearly suggested that only those actually laid out by the virus had any claim on unemployment insurance. Now the new “Iowa Eviction and Foreclosure Prevention Program,” (which offers rental and mortgage assistance to households “at risk of eviction or foreclosure due to a documented COVID-19 related loss of income”) actually disqualifies those receiving unemployment insurance from applying.

The logic here is difficult to fathom. Those thrown out of work by the pandemic are struggling to make ends meet, and to sustain rent or mortgage payments. Aren’t these exactly the Iowans who should be eligible for a program of rental or mortgage assistance? Instead, the new program offers assistance to “Iowans who have been economically impacted by COVID-19,” in one breath and then snatches it away in the next — penalizing and stigmatizing those most at need by treating receipt of the federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (PUC) benefit ($600 a week through July 25) like a failed drug test.

But even if we put aside the savage inequity of this, the Governor’s evident distaste for the federal supplements to unemployment insurance is just bad fiscal policy. Let’s do the math. As of this week, 178,619 Iowans are receiving regular unemployment benefits and another 17,545 are receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). The $600 PUC benefit (payable to those in regular UI and PUA) and the base benefit for those in the PUA are all paid with federal dollars. That’s an inflow of over $120 million a week into the pockets of working Iowans.

If we assume an effective state income tax rate of 2.3 percent and effective sales tax rate of 5.3 percent (both based on estimates by the Institute for Tax and Economic Policy for Iowans earning between $22,000 and $40,000/year), that’s a boost to state income tax receipts of $2.8 million dollars a week,[1] and a boost to state and local sales tax receipts of $6.4 million dollars a week. In the seven weeks before the PUC expires July 25, that’s a net revenue of gain of $64.5 million — or enough to pay for the mortgage and rental assistance program (which has been allotted $22 million of Iowa’s CARES Act funds) almost three times over.

And these are conservative estimates. The unemployment totals do not include the over 150,000 UI (including those from the last two weeks) that have been filed but not yet processed. They do not include the retroactive benefits payable to those qualifying for UI. They are based on the minimum monthly benefit under the PUA. And they do not include the stimulus or tax revenue impact of state-funded UI benefits.

For the health and safety of working Iowans, we should be encouraging and enabling as many as possible to qualify for unemployment benefits. And, as long as federal government is picking up the tab, we should jump at the chance to backfill state and local budgets with the tax revenues that accompany such benefits.

[1] The state’s June 3 fiscal update echoes this estimate, attributing a $31.4 million increase in state income tax receipts over the 10-week period from March 19 to June 2 ($3.1 million a week) to withholding from UI benefits. This estimate is slightly higher because it includes the withholding from state-funded benefits as well.

Colin Gordon is senior research consultant for the nonpartisan Iowa Policy Project. He is a professor of history at the University of Iowa.

Back to business at Statehouse

Posted May 27th, 2020 to

Finding best uses of Iowa relief funds as legislators prepare to resume the 2020 session June 3

Over 18,000 Iowans have been sickened with the coronavirus. Over 313,000 Iowans — nearly 1 in 5 workers — have applied for unemployment since the middle of March. Many small businesses have closed or are operating at only limited capacity and suffering drastic losses.

While the misery is widespread, low-wage workers and persons of color have disproportionately felt the health and the economic consequences of the crisis. Both groups are more likely to be exposed to the virus — because they are more likely to be “essential workers” — and more likely to experience health and social disadvantages associated with poverty and racism that increase the odds of serious effects when exposed.[1]

Congress on March 27 passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act, known as the CARES Act, which created the Coronavirus Relief Fund (CRF) to cover expenses of state and local governments related to the COVID-19 health and economic emergency. Of $139 billion for states, Iowa’s share is $1.25 billion. Because we have no cities with a population over 500,000, no funding went directly to local governments, but the state is free to allocate funds to localities.

Quick and effective use of these funds is important not just to help the thousands of Iowans suffering from the effects of this crisis, but also to boost the state economy. It has been shown that the most effective way of stimulating economic activity is to get more money in the hands of lower and middle income households, who can be counted on to spend in the local economy and support Iowa’s businesses. That in turn will boost state sales tax and income tax revenues, moderating the state’s fiscal problems.

How can the state use CRF funds, and what are the best uses?

CRF money must go for expenditures necessitated by the coronavirus emergency through December 30, 2020.[2] Congress made it explicit that these funds are for unforeseen and necessary additional expenditures, not to replace revenue lost because of the falloff in economic activity.[3] Still, the range of allowable uses is quite broad.[4] Eligible expenditures include not only direct expenses for public health needs but also expenses “incurred to respond to second order effects of the emergency, such as providing economic support to those suffering from employment or business interruptions due to COVID-19 related business closures.”[5]

As of this writing, Iowa plans to spend $100 million of the $1.25 billion, all to the Small Business Relief Program.[6] The Governor also will use $20 million to fund a new rental and mortgage assistance program. Lawmakers should use the remaining $1.13 billion to prioritize protecting state and local finances — key to long-term recovery — and meet the needs of low-wage workers and people of color who have borne the brunt of the virus.

Here are ways legislators should allocate CRF funds or adjust state priorities when they reconvene June 3:

  • Pay salaries and benefits of state government employees who have been diverted from their usual activities to respond to the current emergency. By using CRF for some state payroll costs, Iowa would face a smaller budget shortfall from the expected precipitous drop in state revenues.
  • Transfer funds to cities and counties to cover additional costs associated with the emergency, including payroll. Cities and counties face sizable costs for emergency management, purchase of personal protective equipment, sanitizing of facilities, technology needed for staff to work remotely, overtime for public safety workers, and elections costs with greater use of voting by mail.[7]
  • Transfer funds to school districts, which face added costs to divert education staff to online learning programs, facility cleaning, and ensuring that all students have access to educational programs while schools remain closed. Funds provided directly to schools by the CARES Act represent just 1 percent of school district budgets and are unlikely to cover all of these costs.
  • Bolster the federal Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) with state funds and create a parallel program to prevent water shutoffs.
  • Strengthen the state’s Child Care Assistance program by increasing the maximum family income eligibility level and raising provider reimbursement rates. These boosts will support essential workers unable to afford the full cost of child care, help stabilize the child care industry by bringing new families into the system and improve its underlying financial structure.
  • Expand cash assistance under the Family Investment Program to help families meet basic needs and avert serious hardship.
  • Expand food assistance by increasing income eligibility for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) to 200 percent of the federal poverty level, easing access with broad-based categorical eligibility and initiating a Disaster SNAP (D-SNAP) program to reach currently excluded Iowans. SNAP puts food on the table and is an important way to stimulate local economies.
  • Hire more staff at Iowa Workforce Development to facilitate applications for unemployment benefits, and create a network of navigators to help individuals apply for various forms of public assistance needed now by those affected by the crisis, particularly those with language barriers.
  • Provide additional funds to counties for general cash assistance to individuals in emergency situations and those left out of traditional assistance programs.
  • Expand internet access for remote work and education, access to TestIowa and online commerce.
  • Assess the need for financial support to hospitals beyond the $691 million in “provider relief funds” to Iowa health care providers already included in the CARES Act. Hospitals are seeing revenues drop as people avoid seeking care for fear of contracting the virus, a trend that could well continue even after hospitals reopen for elective procedures.

[1] Harvard Center on the Developing Child, “Thinking About Racial Disparities in COVID-19 Impacts Through a Science-Informed, Early Childhood Lens.” https://developingchild.harvard.edu/thinking-about-racial-disparities-in-covid-19-impacts-through-a-science-informed-early-childhood-lens/

[2] Legislative Services Agency, Fiscal Update, March 31, 2020. “H.R. 748 Coronavirus Aid, Relief, And Economic Security Act Appropriations.”

[3] The CARES Act states: “Coronavirus Relief Fund payments may not be used to directly account for revenue shortfalls related to the COVID-19 outbreak.”

[4] U.S. Department of the Treasury: “Coronavirus Relief Fund: Frequently Asked Questions,” updated as of May 4, 2020. A summary of allowable expenses described in this document can be found in the IFP report: “Iowa will need more fiscal relief than Congress has given.” https://bit.ly/2WKMp4o

[5] Legislative Services Agency, Fiscal Update, May 15, 2020, “COVID-19 – Iowa Coronavirus Relief Fund.”

[6] Legislative Services Agency, Fiscal Update, May 15, 2020, “COVID-19 – Iowa Coronavirus Relief Fund” and Legislative Services Agency, Fiscal Update, May 12, 2020, “COVID-19 — Iowa Small Business Relief Program Update.”

[7] An Iowa State Association of Counties found $5.8 million in additional spending required in 11 counties, the majority for emergency management, public safety, public health, courthouse expenses and IT. https://www.iowacounties.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ISAC-COVID-Financial-Impacts-on-Iowa-Counties-Report.pdf The League of Cities is in the process of surveying members, https://bit.ly/2yvMQ9m.

Faster infection pace, fewer limits

Posted May 14th, 2020 to Blog

A number of Iowa counties are seeing a surge in coronavirus cases, even as the Governor continues to reopen the Iowa economy and further relax social distancing requirements.

In Wapello County, cases soared from 10 on April 28 to 306 two weeks later. Over that same time period, Crawford County saw an increase from 21 to 207, and Sioux County from 8 to 103. Yet instead of reinstituting social distancing in those hot spots, the Governor has expanded her relaxation of requirements on businesses from 77 counties to all counties statewide.

Given the problems and delays with testing, and the lack of widespread testing, it is difficult to know just how many Iowans are actually infected with the coronavirus, and whether there are other emerging hotspots that remain unidentified. But we do know where there have been major increases in identified cases. For the most recent two-week period, the table below shows the 16 counties with the highest number of new cases per 100,000 population over the past two weeks (through May 12).

When adjusted for population, we see that many rural counties are experiencing more rapid growth than urban centers, many of which (Linn, Johnson, Scott) did not even make this list. Half the counties on the list (indicated by shading) are among the 77 counties where restrictions were first relaxed on May 1.

Most of those eight counties we identified last week as likely hot spots based on the growth in cases up to that point. New additions to the list are Monroe and Osceola, where the total number of cases is not large, but where we may be seeing the beginning of a surge. Six of the eight shaded counties saw their case count more than double in the past week.

It is easiest to see which counties have grown the fastest if we compare the cases per 100,000 population and how this number changed since the county first hit 50 cases. The counties are compared on the basis of when the surge began in their county. Wapello and Crawford have been growing at much the same rate as Woodbury, notably one of the top counties in the entire country in terms of the size and rate of the coronavirus surge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Peter Fisher is research director for the nonpartisan Iowa Policy Project in Iowa City.

Sheltering the data in place

Posted April 8th, 2020 to Blog

Governor Kim Reynolds over the past few weeks has moved incrementally to close more kinds of businesses, to the point where Iowa’s restrictions now resemble those of states that have a blanket statewide “shelter in place” order. Significant distinctions remain: a proper and comprehensive shelter in place order closes all businesses except those specified as essential, leaving no ambiguities and loopholes, and comes with clear and enforceable restrictions on travel and social activities.

The governor continues to assert that her recommendations are driven by the same four metrics that have guided her since the beginning and that only recently became partly public information due to efforts by the press. We provided a thorough analysis of that guidance several days ago. On Tuesday, we finally learned about one of those metrics: There are three long-term care facilities with a sufficient number of COVID-19 cases to be classified as a facility with an outbreak.

We now know enough to construct the point system in spite of stonewalling by the Governor’s Office.

The first of the four measures — percent of population age 65 or over — can be found from census data. The second — cases per 100,000 population — can be calculated because the number of cases has been released by IDPH by county. The third — outbreaks at care facilities — is now known, with locations, because of a question at a press conference.

That leaves the fourth — hospitalizations as a percent of cases — that is unknown by county or region because the governor still refuses to release the data. But we know the total score by region because it shows up on the maps that are intermittently released at press conferences (but remain unavailable on the IDPH website). Thus by subtraction we can determine that all four regions must be at the highest level, a 3, on the hospitalization rate score.

From here on out, the only thing that can change is the cases per 100,000 population and the number of care facility outbreaks. Region 5 is already at the maximum on the cases measure, and regions 1 and 6 will likely get there soon, leaving all three regions with a score of 9, 1 short of 10, the number that supposedly triggers shelter in place. So those regions, covering a large majority of the state’s population and COVID-19 cases, can get to 10 only with another outbreak at a care facility.

The governor on the one hand argues that we already have the equivalent of shelter in place, and at the same time the metric that she says still guides her decisions shows that shelter in place is not yet warranted anywhere in the state. Has that metric really been used thus far, and in what way? How do you get from the metrics to a list of particular additional businesses to close? What will happen when a region reaches 10? Will the governor order more stringent measures in just that region? Or will the whole thing be scrapped once a proper forecasting model is developed that meets with her approval?

One thing is clear: transparency has been sadly lacking, and for no apparent reason.

Peter Fisher is research director of the nonpartisan Iowa Policy Project.

pfisher@iowapolicyproject.org

IFP Statement: Disclose data, plans

It is past time to provide all Iowans with COVID-19 data, plans

A new policy brief by Iowa Policy Project research director Peter Fisher examines the arbitrary and backward-facing approach of the metrics that the administration of Governor Kim Reynolds has disclosed that Iowa officials are using in their response to the spread of the novel coronavirus. See that brief on the Iowa Fiscal Partnership (IFP) website.

The Iowa Fiscal Partnership released the following statement from Mike Owen, executive director of the Iowa Policy Project, about the lack of transparency in Iowa’s COVID-19 response.

“In a public health crisis like living Iowans and Americans have never seen, our leaders should welcome the value public scrutiny and perspective can bring to decision-making.

“It should not have taken an enterprising news reporter to coax out the short list of metrics[1] that Governor Kim Reynolds and her administration are using to make decisions about public safety. Responding to the crisis is public business, as consequential as most of us have seen. Iowans not only need to know what data is being used, and its sources, but how choices are being made with that information.

“Are other measures being considered? What measures have been dismissed? Who are the analysts? What comparisons are being made to other data and other states’ actions? These are only a few of the questions that logically arise. Not enough testing is being done to make the Governor’s metric of an infection rate meaningful, for one thing.

“The Governor asserts her actions thus far are as strong as official ‘shelter-in-place’ orders in other states. Even if comparisons wind up backing that claim, we need more information.

“Do we have the resources to make sure front-line health workers and all public and private workers handling essential services are protected? From medical care to corrections to seniors’ housing to day-care centers, do workers have the personal protective equipment to do their jobs safely? Do they have sufficient resources to protect the people in their care? Any of us could be among those needing care in the coming weeks.

“It is fair for Iowans to ask how they can expect that the state will avoid an overwhelmed health care system when we are relying on looser rules for social interaction than they are seeing in other states. Should we not build into public policy the findings of analysis that illustrate the benefit of reducing travel in preventing the spread of the virus?[2]

“It is not possible for Iowa to have all hands on deck to respond without knowing what resources we have, what we can reasonably expect to need, and to know how our leaders plan to bridge any gap.

“Yes, we are owed the information. It affects us all, and without it we cannot contribute with ideas to make solutions better or bring them along faster.

“It is time — past time — that all Iowans are brought to the table.”

                                            #     #     #     #     #

The Iowa Fiscal Partnership is a joint public policy analysis initiative of two nonpartisan, nonprofit, Iowa-based organizations — the Iowa Policy Project in Iowa City, and the Child and Family Policy Center in Des Moines. Find reports at www.iowafiscal.org, and the IPP and CFPC websites, www.iowapolicyproject.org and www.cfpciowa.org.

[1] Zachary Oren Smith, Barbara Rodriguez, Jason Clayworth, Des Moines Register, April 2, 2020. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/health/2020/04/02/shelter-in-place-iowa-covid-19-benchmark-guidance-tool-waits-for-hospitalization-outbreaks/5111747002/

[2] The New York Times, “Where America Didn’t Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread.” April 2, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html?algo=top_conversion&fellback=false&imp_id=603400842&imp_id=967213594&action=click&module=trending&pgtype=Article&region=Footer